The electric vehicle revolution cannot be stopped. It won’t be stopped by car companies, it won’t be stopped by consumers and it certainly will not be stopped by the president. The EV revolution is happening. The only thing left to decide is whether America wants to lead it, or be left behind.
Had an all-out push to stop EVs materialized 10, five or even two years ago, it may have succeeded. The EV market was new and underdeveloped. Few companies on any continent were making much to get excited about. But in the past two years, the market has been flooded with relatively affordable, long-range, fast-charging EVs that buyers love. Consumers across the globe are interested in and comfortable with EVs as an option.
Most of them say they won’t go back to gasoline again. And if there’s one thing you need to about public policy, it’s that inertia is tough to overcome. EVs are 22% of the auto market in California, electrified vehicles are half the market in China and Europe is pushing ahead. There’s nothing the federal government can do to stop it.
Ford CEO Jim Farley has been driving a Chinese Xiaomi SU7 EV for months, and he says it’s incredible.
I write this because I don’t want anyone who believes in this to lose hope. It is true that America’s next president is a strident critic of EVs. He indeed wants to cut incentives, erase a (non-existent) “mandate” and “drill, baby, drill.” However, his myriad unsuccessful attempts to shove an Affordable Care Act repeal through Congress last time around are instructive examples: It is very hard for presidents to get rid of things that voters like.
Not all voters like EVs. But voters like America’s status at the forefront of automotive and industrial technology. Voters like high-paying jobs in underserved communities. And voters, when they drive one, tend to like electric cars, too. They don’t want a “mandate,” sure, but EVs don’t need a mandate. They’ll win out because they’re a better solution.
To be sure, the current crop has its issues. Many models on the road are the first mass-market, long-range EVs ever produced by their parent companies. Teething issues are to be expected. But Tesla, a company not exactly known for quality control, has managed to make cars that consistently go to 200,000 or even 300,000 miles without significant work. That’s not because Tesla is a leader in quality, it’s because the initial promise of EVs holds true. They are far simpler to build than internal combustion cars, with fewer moving parts, fewer parts that require ultra-precise manufacturing and far less required maintenance. Figure out your battery chemistry and production, sort out your motors and the rest is easy money. In the future you’ll get tired of your car long before it requires expensive repairs.
Of course, many modern EVs also cost more than their internal-combustion counterparts. But that’s changing fast. With tax credits, a base Chevy Equinox EV already costs the same as a base Toyota RAV4. But it drives better, looks better, has better software, goes 319 miles on a charge and costs half as much to fuel. Remind me again why this is political. What, because of those incentives?
Photo by: Chevrolet
Legacy automakers have sunk billions into their EV efforts, and those investments are just starting to pay off. The first wave of affordable, long-range desirable EVs is just beginning.
Hate to tell you, but the gas car market wouldn’t have been possible without incentives, either. American taxpayers built the roads. Government spending in World War 2 helped solidify the big automotive giants we know today. The U.S. has spent the last 100 years pulling every lever in its geopolitical control center to keep oil prices down, while subsidizing drilling and failing to charge users for the total environmental cost of what they do. Plus today’s cars all have internet connections—impossible without government backing from early on—and the biggest producers of gas trucks all took billions in federal money to survive the 2008 crash. They had got so used to making bloated, thirsty, excessively large vehicles that they couldn’t survive a market shift toward efficiency. Any automaker that wants to abandon its EV plans has only that example to follow.
Even foreign car plants building gas cars take billions in aid from state governments, who are eager to get jobs in politically important areas. Point is, if you want a car built without the explicit help of the U.S. government or the interference of politics, you’re going to have to build it yourself. Just make sure not to order any of the parts online, since the internet relied on government incentives to get going, too.
While EVs from U.S. automakers are great, China’s BYD is on pace to overtake Tesla as the largest EV manufacturer in the world. The company is building EVs at a price that American companies can’t match.
As the internet example shows, the U.S. has long invested public funds in order to lead in the tech market of tomorrow. It’s that alignment of public and private spending that has helped the U.S. outpace all of its Western peers over the last five decades, in terms of jobs, technology, GDP growth, wage growth and value creation. China has now taken that playbook and applied it to EVs, and the result is a market where EVs are cheap, plentiful and already ahead of the West. Imagine if the U.S. lost the competition for tomorrow because we didn’t want to spend the money today, and for the first time maybe ever, failed to be a leader in some new form of technology. Starting today, every taxpayer and politician is going to have to ask themselves if that’s an America they want to live in.
But I’m not really worried about that. Because there are really only two things that a technology needs to succeed in a largely capitalist world. The first is investment. And on that front, EVs are safe. Some automakers may dial back their spending, but I’d bet my salary that none will give up entirely. GM says it’ll push on regardless, and that’s the smart move. Because whatever happens in the U.S., Europe is going electric. So is China. So is much of the Global South. So is Japan, albeit slowly. South Korea shows no signs of slowing down.. Many companies from those countries have already invested here, taking advantage of credits and loans offered through the Inflation Reduction Act. Trump may want to repeal these, but that Affordable Care Act problem comes back again.
By being early and bold in the long-range EV market, Kia and Hyundai are taking advantage of a once-in-a-lifetime shake-up in the automotive industry. It’s paying off for their business, and American companies know it.
Sure, maybe a politician wants to repeal “Obamacare,” but would any voter accept dropping protections for pre-existing conditions? Sure, you want to end the EV “mandate”, but do you want to tell 8,500 Georgia workers that they’re out of a job? That they’ll have to find another high-paying job in rural Georgia, a swing state? You’re not going to want to close the Honda plant in Ohio, or the Ford plant in Michigan, either, are you?
This brings us to criteria number two for technological success: Creating value. Whether through public or private mechanisms, Americans have proven that we will always invest in technologies that create value. It’s why we’re a leader in aerospace, in pharmaceuticals, in computer chips, in finance, in A.I., in everything and everything that can create a billion-dollar company. Love it or hate it, creating value for shareholders is what America is built to do.
The lease payment for my 2024 Chevy Blazer EV is lower than that of a Honda Civic. For that, I get an ultra-quiet, ultra-smooth all-wheel drive crossover with a great interior, all the tech features I’d ever want and 279 miles of range. It’s cheaper to run than a Prius and faster than any comparable gas crossover on the market.
The value in the EV market is obvious. The world’s most valuable automaker pioneered EVs. The next 10 on the list all have EVs on sale, and more in development. More customers than ever say they are interested in EVs, and most that do buy EVs don’t go back. The value is that the experience is better. I say that to my own surprise, as a life-long gas car fan. EVs are quieter, more refined, offer better software and safety technology than most internal combustion cars. They’re cheaper to operate and—if you have home or workplace charging—far easier to live with. They require almost no maintenance. Make no noise. They don’t belch toxins at pedestrians, or into your garage or into the air. They’re faster, too, and far smoother to drive.
People like them. Get someone past the initial hesitation, give them a bit of education and it’ll be their favorite car they’ve ever owned. That doesn’t mean the problems with them are solved; Prices are still too high, the formula doesn’t really make much sense for trucks with current battery chemistry and charging for those without plugs at home or work is a true barrier.
But these are surmountable obstacles. The market will overcome them whoever is in charge. Because the EV revolution is happening. Any smart American company isn’t going to let itself be left behind.
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